WEATHER UPDATE as of 11PM tonight : Supertyphoon Lawin maintains its strength and is currently affecting Cagayan area

Satellite image via PAG-ASA | By Harold Ayao

MANILA, Philippines - The Philippine Weather Bureau PAG-ASA has just released its Weather bulletin #13 and it shows that Super Typhoon "LAWIN" has maintained its strength and is expected to make landfall over Cagayan area. The estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 800 km diameter of the Super Typhoon.

It is expected to make landfall over Cagayan - Isabela Are
a late tonight (11:00 PM) to early morning (2:00 AM, Oct. 20) then will cross Apayao and Ilocos Norte and is still expected to exit  PAR tomorrow evening (Oct. 20).

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #13 TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING: SUPER TYPHOON "LAWIN" [HAIMA] Issued at 11:00 p.m., 19 October  2016

Super Typhoon "LAWIN" has maintained its strength and is expected to make landfall over Cagayan area.

• Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 800 km diameter of the Super Typhoon. • It is expected to make landfall over Cagayan - Isabela Area late tonight (11:00 PM) to early morning (2:00 AM, Oct. 20) then will cross Apayao and Ilocos Norte. • Possible to exit PAR tomorrow evening (Oct. 20). • Sea travel is risky over the eastern seaboard of Southern Luzon and the northern and eastern seaboards of Samar.

Location of Eye/Center: (as of 10:00 p.m.)	95 km East of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Coordinates:	17.5°N, 122.6°E
Strength:	Maximum sustained winds of up to 225 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 315 kph
Movement:	Forecast to move West Northwest at 25 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook:	• 24 Hour ( Tomorrow evening): 330 km West Northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte (19.5°N, 117.8°E) • 48 Hour (Friday evening): 805 km West Northwest of Basco, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR) (23.2°N, 114.8°E) • 72 Hour (Saturday evening): 995 km Northwest of Basco, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR) ) (27.5°N, 116.0°E) • 96 Hour (Sunday evening): 990 km North of Basco, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR) (29.3°N, 122.5°E)

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SIGNAL
TCWS	Luzon	Visayas	Mindanao	Impact of the wind
5 (More than 220 kph Expected in 12 hours)	Cagayan, Isabela, Kalinga, Apayao, Northern Abra and Ilocos Norte			•Widespread damage to high-risk structures •Heavy damage to medium risk structures; •Very heavy damage to low-risk structures •Almost total damage to structures of light materials, especially in highly exposed coastal areas. •Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Severe and extensive window and door damage. •Most residential and institutional buildings of mixed construction may be severely damaged. •Electrical power distribution and communication services severely disrupted. •All signs/billboards blown down. •Total damage to banana plantation •Most tall trees are broken, uprooted or defoliated; •Coconut trees are stooped, broken or uprooted. •Few plants and trees survived.
	Wave Height: (Open Sea) more than 14.0 meters Storm surge more than 3 meters possible at coastal areas
4 (171-220 kph Expected in 12 hours)	Rest of Abra, Ilocos Sur, Mt. Province, Ifugao and Calayan Group of Islands			• Very heavy damage to high–risk structures • Heavy damage to medium risk structures; • Moderate damage to low-risk structures • Considerable damage to structures of light materials (up to 75% are totally and partially destroyed); complete roof structure failures. • Many houses of medium-built materials are unroofed, some with collapsed walls; extensive damage to doors and windows • A few houses of first-class materials are partially damaged • All signs/billboards are blown down. There is almost total damage to banana plantation • Most mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of large trees are downed or broken. • Coconut plantation may suffer extensive damage. • Rice and corn plantation may suffer severe losses.
	Wave Height: (Open Sea) more than  14.0 meters      Storm surge 2-3 m possible at coastal areas
3 (121-170 kph Expected in 18 hours)	La Union, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino and Northern Aurora			• Heavy damage to high–risk structures; • Moderate damage to medium-risk structures; • Light damage to low risk structures • Increasing damage (up to more than 50%) to old, dilapidated residential structures and houses of light materials. Majority of all nipa and cogon houses may be unroofed or destroyed • Houses of medium strength materials (old, timber or mixed timber-CHB structures, usually with G.I. roofing’s); some warehouses or bodega-type structures are unroofed. • There may be widespread disruption of electrical power and communication services. • Almost all banana plants are downed. • Some big trees (acacia, mango, etc.) are broken or uprooted. • Dwarf-type or hybrid coconut trees are tilted or downed. • Rice and corn crops may suffer heavy losses. • Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off; some large trees blown down.
	Wave Height: (Open Sea) >  14.0 meters      Storm surge possible at coastal areas
2 (61-120 kph Expected in 24 hours)	Batanes Group of Islands, Pangasinan, Rest of of Aurora, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Northern Zambales,  and Northern Quezon including Polillo Islands			•Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures; •Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures; •No damage to very light damage to low risk structures •Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed. •A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed. •Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off. •Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed. •Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards •In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken. •Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken. •Rice and corn may be adversely affected. •Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
	Wave Height: (Open Sea) 4.1-14.0 meters      Storm surge possible at coastal areas
1 (30-60 kph Expected in 36 hours)	Rest of Zambales, Bulacan, Bataan, Pampanga, Rizal, Rest of Quezon, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay and Metro Manila			•Very light or no damage to low risk structures, •Light damage to medium to high risk structures •Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged •Twigs of small trees may be broken. •Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
	Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next weather bulletin to be issued at 2 AM tomorrow.