11 PM WEATHER UPDATE: TYPHOON "KAREN" intensifies and threatens the province of aurora and nearby provinces

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #15 TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING: TYPHOON "KAREN" [SARIKA] Issued at 11:00 p.m., 15 October  2016

"KAREN" has intensified further as it continues to threaten the province of aurora moving closer to the area.

Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 500 km diameter of the typhoon. Possible occurrence of storm surges along the coastal communities of areas with TCWS #3 and #2 and flashfloods and landslides over all areas with TCWSs. Expected to make landfall over the province of Aurora province tomorrow early morning and exit the landmass of the country via Pangasinan by tomorrow afternoon. Fisherfolks and those with small seacrafts are advised not to venture out over the northern seaboard of Northern Luzon and over the northern and eastern seaboards of Samar. Meanwhile, the Tropical Storm with international name HAIMA was estimated at 1,700 km East of Mindanao. It is expected to enter the eastern boundary of the PAR by Monday.

Location of Eye/Center: (as of 10:00 p.m.)	120 km East Northeast of Infanta, Quezon
Coordinates:	15.3 °N, 122.6 °E)
Strength:	Maximum sustained winds of up to 150 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 210 kph
Movement:	Forecast to move West Northwest at 22 kph.
Forecast Positions/Outlook:	24 Hour( Tomorrow evening): 275 km West Northwest of Iba, Zambales (16.6 N, 117.8 E) 48 Hour(Monday evening):840 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur (18.0 N, 112.5 E) (OUTSIDE PAR) 72 Hour(Tuesday evening): 1,345 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur (19.1 N, 107.8 E) (OUTSIDE PAR) 96 Hour(Wednesday evening):1,845 km West Northwest of Sinait, Ilocos Sur (20.2 N, 103.1 ) (OUTSIDE PAR)

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SIGNAL
TCWS	Luzon	Visayas	Mindanao	Impacts of the wind
3 (121-170 kph Expected in 18 hours)	Pangasinan, Northern Zambales, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Aurora, Northern Quezon including Polilio Island, La Union, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya and Quirino.			Heavy damage to high–risk structures; Moderate damage to medium-risk structures; Light damage to low risk structures Increasing damage (up to more than 50%) to old, dilapidated residential structures and houses of light materials. Majority of all nipa and cogon houses may be unroofed or destroyed Houses of medium strength materials (old, timber or mixed timber-CHB structures, usually with G.I. roofing’s); some warehouses or bodega-type structures are unroofed. There may be widespread disruption of electrical power and communication services. Almost all banana plants are downed. Some big trees (acacia, mango, etc.) are broken or uprooted. Dwarf-type or hybrid coconut trees are tilted or downed. Rice and corn crops may suffer heavy losses. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off; some large trees blown down.
	Wave Height: (Open Sea) > 14.0 meters Storm surge possible at coastal areas
2 (61-120kph expected in 24 hrs)	Ilocos Sur, Southern Isabela, Mt Province, Ifugao, Rest of Zambales, Pampanga, Bulacan, Bataan, Rizal, Metro Manila, Rest of Quezon and Camarines Norte.			Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures;  Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures;  No damage to very light damage to low risk structures  Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed. A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed. Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off. Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed. Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken Rice and corn may be adversely affected Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
	Wave Height: (Open Sea) 4.1-14.0 meters Storm surge possible at coastal areas
1 (30-60kph Expected in 36 hrs.)	Ilocos Norte, Abra, Kalinga, Rest of Isabela, Southern Apayao, Southern Cagayan, Oriental Mindoro, Cavite, Batangas, Laguna, Marinduque, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay and Burias Island			Very light or no damage to low risk structures, Light damage to medium to high risk structures Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged Twigs of small trees may be broken. Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
	Wave Height (Open Sea): 1.25-4.0 meters
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next weather bulletin to be issued at 2 AM tomorrow.

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