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| The Dangerous Drugs Board shares its Quezon City office with the Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency. File photo |
MANILA, Philippines — President Rodrigo Duterte's claim that there are 4 million addicts in the Philippines is "within the realm of possibility," the Dangerous Drugs Board says. The math, however, does not support this assertion.
According to the DDB's 2015 Nationwide Survey on the Nature and Extent of Drug Abuse in the Philippines released in September 2016, there are around 1.8 million drug users in the Philippines, around 2.3 percent of the population.
This is the official figure, although the president has repeatedly mentioned 4 million users, whom he has characterized as addicts and as "slaves."
Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency Director General Isidro Lapeña, meanwhile, has been quoted in GMA News' "Balita Pilipinas" as saying there are 3 million addicts in the Philippines. He cited the same DDB survey.
"Pero may margin of error kasi iyan na plus or minus five percent, so it can even go as high as—so 2.3 plus 5 percent, that's 7.3 percent. That's even higher than the global average," DDB Chairman Benjamin Reyes told Philstar in an interview this month. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime estimates a global average of 5.2 percent.
"So, 'yung sinasabi ni president na four million? It's actually probable. Kasi nga, pasok siya doon sa margin of error eh," he said.
This was a reiteration of the DDB's position, sent in December 2016 by Corazon Mamigo of the board's Policy Studies, Research and Statistics Division, that "the claim of President Duterte that there are an estimated 4 million drug users in the Philippines is within the realm of possibility." She said, citing the same margin of error, that there may be as many as 5.7 million drug users in the country.
But the margin of error in the 2015 Nationwide Survey on the Nature and Extent of Drug Abuse in the Philippines is ±0.9 percent according to the DDB's presentation when the survey results were released last year and in the full report that was released to .
Asked to explain what the basis was for assuming the margin of error of ±5 percent, Reyes pointed to the 95 percent confidence level. "[That] means you have ±5 percent chance of not being correct," he said.
According to the DDB's 2015 Nationwide Survey on the Nature and Extent of Drug Abuse in the Philippines released in September 2016, there are around 1.8 million drug users in the Philippines, around 2.3 percent of the population.
This is the official figure, although the president has repeatedly mentioned 4 million users, whom he has characterized as addicts and as "slaves."
Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency Director General Isidro Lapeña, meanwhile, has been quoted in GMA News' "Balita Pilipinas" as saying there are 3 million addicts in the Philippines. He cited the same DDB survey.
"Pero may margin of error kasi iyan na plus or minus five percent, so it can even go as high as—so 2.3 plus 5 percent, that's 7.3 percent. That's even higher than the global average," DDB Chairman Benjamin Reyes told Philstar in an interview this month. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime estimates a global average of 5.2 percent.
"So, 'yung sinasabi ni president na four million? It's actually probable. Kasi nga, pasok siya doon sa margin of error eh," he said.
This was a reiteration of the DDB's position, sent in December 2016 by Corazon Mamigo of the board's Policy Studies, Research and Statistics Division, that "the claim of President Duterte that there are an estimated 4 million drug users in the Philippines is within the realm of possibility." She said, citing the same margin of error, that there may be as many as 5.7 million drug users in the country.
But the margin of error in the 2015 Nationwide Survey on the Nature and Extent of Drug Abuse in the Philippines is ±0.9 percent according to the DDB's presentation when the survey results were released last year and in the full report that was released to .
Asked to explain what the basis was for assuming the margin of error of ±5 percent, Reyes pointed to the 95 percent confidence level. "[That] means you have ±5 percent chance of not being correct," he said.
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